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May 12, 2004
Handicapping the WSOP
I was looking today at an online cardroom that has odds posted for players to bet on the winner of this years WSOP. Whoever made these odds either has absolutely zero clue about poker, or just assumes that nobody else has any clue. Here is why. If I had to pick my top 3 contenders for the WSOP title I would pick (in this order) Daniel Negreanu, Barry Greenstein, or Gus Hansen. Daniel is my first choice because he is a stellar player, seems to be running pretty well, definitely wants it as much as anyone, and from his writings seems to be pretty much on top of the world in his personal life. Barry Greenstein has been a man on a mission this year, winning a couple major events and hitting top table in others. And Gus, well he is Gus. The guy is just a tank.
So what are the odds for these players? Barry has one of the lowest payouts with 220:1 odds. Gus Hansen is paying 270:1, and Daniel Negreanu pays 358:1. Look at that again. 358:1.
These seems moderately absurd that a guy who keeps hitting top table in WPT events, has already cashed in 4 WSOP events this year (with one win) could be that much higher. It is even more absurd when you consider the following odds:
1. Gabe Kaplan (the actor): 250:1. I'm sure he has a better shot of winning than Gus Hansen.
2. David Sklansky: 300:1. Has this guy ever even won a tournament before? I wouldn’t take 900:1 on him. Don’t get me wrong, when you want to know how to beat a $10/$20 game he is the man to ask. But a major event, no way.
3. Louis Asmo: 350:1. He has a bracelet from years ago and plays in many major events, and is probably a winning player. But just going on record alone I'm going to have to pick Daniel over this guy with similar odds.
4. Paul Magriel: 300:1. You remember that goofy looking guy on the WSOP the first year they called “22” who always said quack quack? Apparently just that one money finish makes him better than Daniel Negreanu.
5. Johnny Chan: 75:1. If Jesus Christ came back to earth and decided to play in the 2000 man WSOP I would take him at 75:1. Other than that nobody, and I mean nobody, could possibly be worth such poor odds. At one time he was 225:1, which means people must have bet the hell out of him to get down to 75.
So if I were forced to buy anybody I would buy Daniel. He is definitely the best odds you will get on that site. To be honest though I am not sure that even he is a good bet, since he would have to have 6 times the chance of winning (if the tournament has 2000 people as I think it will) as the average player, and I am not sure that anybody has that. The odds on everybody else are really just absurd. They would be great given a smaller field but with 2000 people nobody really has that great a chance of coming in 1st.
Posted by themaroon at May 12, 2004 5:56 AM
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