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July 20, 2005
Birthday Gift
I woke up today and figured I was going to take a beating at the $30/$60 games. The reason was twofold. For one, I have won my last 15 sessions of limit hold'em online (mostly $30/$60 with a few $20/$40s) for a total of over $30k. which leaves me due for a good swift kick in the teeth. And for another, it is my birthday and I always seem to get wrecked on my birthday. I'm something like 0-5 on July 20th.
So it came as no surprise when my first session found me stuck $3k. Luckily Party gave it all back and then some on the second session, so I can actually put a mark in the V category for this glorious holiday.
I always hear hippie do-gooder celebrities (you know, the ones who love in $20 million homes and have the nerve to complain about world poverty, but hey, they are good people because they drive a Prius) say dumb things like "on my birthday I like to give gifts rather than receive them". Normally I laugh at them, but I thought that since none of you useless bastards have ever purchased me anything from my wishlist over there on the left hand side, and probably aren’t about to start just because I turned 25, I might as well give you something. So here it is, my birthday present to you:
Sometimes people ask me how I make such amazing reads when playing ring games on Party Poker. I'd say about 90% of the time it's some guy who I called down with ace high being sarcastic because he is mad that I won, and 10% of the time it's genuine. It doesn’t happen that much anyway (usually they just say "nice hand idiot") but it does occur. In any case I'm going to answer it for all of you, my loyal readers, by giving you my patented 5 step process for reading monkeys on Party Poker.
Step 1
Create a mental list of every possible hand.Step 2
Look at their preflop play. Eliminate all hands that would be just totally ridiculous unless their VP$IP is very high. For instance if they cold called 3 bets just go ahead and cut out J4 off and 2 7 suited. If their VP$IP at a full table is north of 60 then skip to Step 3. Be careful not to take this one too far, especially in the blinds, and if you are ever unsure about something just leave it in the list.Step 3
Look at their postflop play. Think of all the hands for which their play would have been the best possible on every betting round. Eliminate those hands from the list. Nobody on Party Poker ever plays a hand well on every street. This is the most important step, and the hardest to apply because it necessitates knowing the correct way to play a hand.I could, and maybe someday will, write a very long essay on why I think over 99% of people on the site never play a hand correctly (other than ones they simply fold). I mention the key culprit (overvaluing and not understanding deception) in my book a bit. But for now just accept it on faith that very few people on Party ever play a hand well, and when you run across one just mark it in your notes and remember not to use this process on them in the future.
Step 4
Think of all of the remaining hands for which their postflop play would be the worst possible (excluding folding of course, because if someone folds you have no reason to try to read them). Form them into a group. There is a 2/3 chance their hand resides in this group.Step 5
Think of all of the remaining hands for which their postflop play would be suboptimal but not the worst possible. There is a 1/3 chance their hand resides in this group. The only reason for this step is the fact that there are really only a few options available in limit poker. And while people amaze me daily with their ability to never ever select the best play on more than one street in a hand they sometimes fall ass-backwards into making an optimal decision once. At least 1/3 of the time they don't play their hand as unprofitably as humanly possible.And there you have it. Simple, I know, but very effective. It might not seem so effective since the range of hands you have people on is usually fairly wide, but trust me, it's as narrow as you can accurately get. A lot of people think reading someone means knowing their specific hand, and sometimes you can do that, but more often than not it's figuring out a range of hands, and in general the worse the player the bigger that range will be.
People who are terrible at poker are often very hard to read. They pay a fortune for that privilege though, far more than it is really worth, so just narrow the range down as much as you can and then abuse them.
Posted by themaroon at July 20, 2005 1:14 PM
Comments
Gee... "Mr"... you don't think there might have been a LITTLE sarcasm in this post do you?
Now if you'll get your head out of your ass... and look through the post, you WILL actually find good content... here, I'll point it out for you.
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A lot of people think reading someone means knowing their specific hand, and sometimes you can do that, but more often than not it's figuring out a range of hands, and in general the worse the player the bigger that range will be.
People who are terrible at poker are often very hard to read. They pay a fortune for that privilege though, far more than it is really worth, so just narrow the range down as much as you can and then abuse them.
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I'm thinking maybe you could take a couple night classes on Reading Comprehension at the local High School, they'll probably teach you some simple process of eliminating the "useless" from the "useful".
Posted by: Johnny FlopBoot at July 20, 2005 4:15 PM
For those reading there was a comment to which Johnny was responding that I deleted. It said, roughly translated: "HEEEEE HAWWWWW".
Posted by: Matt at July 20, 2005 6:34 PM
I had a guy who raised my blind on the button pretty much every time play a hand with me where I 3 bet out of the BB with A10, had a board of 972 he calls my continuation bet, with a J turn raises my bet on the turn, and I called down and won with A10, beating his KQ.
He then claimed it was the worst call down ever. The reason I called him down was that on the turn raise, he took about 5 seconds to make it. In my opinion he was taking the time whether or not to call or raise his draw (I thought Q10) and so when I pointed this out to him his response was "it doesn't matter if you have a tell" and proceeded to go insane when actual logic was thrown back at him to discredit his statement.
Posted by: andy at July 20, 2005 11:46 PM
Happy bday man! Hope you have another good year! Thanks for the present!
Posted by: Brian at July 21, 2005 3:37 AM
that's a sick streak brother. you must be taking all your vitamins and minerals. are you having PT watch the 100 and 200 tables?
Posted by: eric at July 21, 2005 5:16 AM
Great advice Matt, but does this work only at the higher stakes games or for us $2/$4 shlubs?
Posted by: Drizztdj at July 21, 2005 10:19 AM
Happy Birthday Matt. I owe you a drink.
Posted by: Damien at July 21, 2005 10:30 AM
Happy B-day. If you are ever down in new orleans I got a good gift for you which is the Harrahs poker room. The games are softer than my poop after ten chilli dogs. Then Ill take you the bangkok spa afterwards. Enjoy your day.
Posted by: Jeb at July 21, 2005 11:16 AM
It seems you're 6 days younger than me. Heee haw, youngster. :0
Posted by: Ferox at July 22, 2005 9:39 AM
COol Advice..not sure if it would work at lower stakes though.
Posted by: Dman at February 14, 2006 1:40 PM