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August 17, 2005
It's A Hard Knock Life
The vacation has been relaxing thus far. I haven't been doing much of anything. Since there haven't been any new poker adventures let's do some comment responses:
I think that assuming you can make $400/hour in these games is a little ambitious if you are 4 tabling. I am more than familiar with your stance that 2+2's and the rest of the online poker world has misconcpetions about what win rates are attainable, but i don't know what leads you to believe you are over 2.5BB/100 winner in these games.It's more of a guess than an assumption. To create random databases you have to put in some hourly rate and are therefore forced to make assumptions. As I said I tried a few different hourly rates as well. I estimate my rate will be $400/hr based on what I have seen in my couple years of playing online. I could be off the mark, time will tell.
Also according to Poker Tracker I see 330 hands per hour on average. $400/ ($60*3.3) is almost exactly 2 bb/100, not 2.5. Remember that I average two short handed tables and two full ones. I see no reason why 2 should be unattainable. I honestly don't see why I shouldn't be able to grow as high as 2.5 as I improve.
You claimed to be making 5BB/100 2 tabling 10/20. I don't know what your sample size is for that figure, as it seems quite high for 200K+ hands, but Matt, if this is really true, why not try to add a third and fourth table there? Your win rate would easily be over $300/hour and your wouldn't have downswings in excess of 5k. Seemes like a much better deal to me.
The law of diminishing returns sets in fast. I doubt my hourly rate would increase by any more than 50% if I doubled the number of tables I played. Even if I could somehow keep up 4 bb/100 while 4 tabling that would be about $300/hr. Why make $300 when I can make $400? I have the bankroll to handle the swings at $30/$60, they are merely an annoyance. As I grow accustomed to them the annoyance factor will only decrease.
Also I don't learn nearly as much at a $10/$20 6 max as I do at a $30/$60 table. I have more fun at poker when I am learning, which is why I always say that poker is more enjoyable when played with better players. I'll definitely have a significantly lower bb/100 at $30/$60 than I would at $10/$20, but the stakes tripling will make it more profitable in the end. So more fun and more money, hard to pass that up.
I suggest you hire a cleaning service and a lawn service if you haven't done so already. Unless, of course, you find those things relaxing.
We rent, so lawn service is not a problem currently. I have been considering hiring a maid. Once we get our own place I will probably look into it. It makes more sense for me to work one extra hour a month and pay a maid to do laundry/cleaning than to spend an hour or two each week doing those things myself.
LIVEBOON OR DIE TRYINGOk, this one cracks me up. From what I can understand the whole FTR forum is slinging around this liveboon thing. Apparently one of their members had posted trying to sell a Card Player Cruise ticket he had purchased for $1,200 or so. He also, of course, had to provide his own airfare and expenses, so I'm guessing his trip would have come out to at least $2,000. But he injured himself doing some dangerous skydiving maneuver that went bad and left him seriously hurt and lucky to be alive so he had to sell his cabin.
He complains in his post that he didn't have health insurance. People on the FTR forum are planning benefits for him. Here's what I don’t get.
1.) The guy has a hobby involving dangerous stunt maneuvers performed while falling from thousands of feet in the air.
2.) The guy doesn't have health insurance.
3.) He had $2k in discretionary income and chose to use it to buy cruise tickets, not health insurance.
Someone needs to prioritize.
How does your girlfriend feel about the lifestyle that you have? It must put some kind of strain on the relationship that you only see her so many hours a day, and when she wakes up you're sleeping etc.She loves it. We get to spend much more time together than we ever did before. I'm available whenever I need/want to be.Just wondering, because I find Poker and relationships not the easiest to manage together.
Through 9 months of the year she wakes up and goes straight to work. If I'm on my preferred sleep schedule I wake up around noon or 1, get a few hours of play in, and then do dinner with her. Then I get a few more hours in at night after she goes to sleep, so I'm available almost all of the time she is. And whenever she is on vacation I can be. When done right it's pretty ideal.
Your logic fails on some major fronts.Let's see some examples of my failing logic, shall we?
Yes you pay taxes, but that is not a net contribution to society. If poker did not exist, the fools who give you all that money would buy goods or services eventually with their income and taxes would be payed on those transfers. The government would get a cut eventually.Well poker does exist and rather than spending their dollars on goods and services here in the U.S. the "fools" are pissing them away to some company based in Gibraltar and staffed in India. I'm bringing it back to the U.S, which is effectively a net generation of wealth for my country.
And "payed" isn’t a word.
Your consumption argument is even worse. Whoever gave you their money playing poker, is deprived the opportunity of consuming. So whatever consumption you do has no net effect.They are consuming. They are paying an overseas corporation for the privilege of playing poker online. I'm repatriating some of that money. Without someone to win that money and cash it out it would flow around Party until the majority of it got raked and sent to India.
There is no net generation of wealth or material goods.I wasn't claiming that there was. Of course my logic fails when you entirely misunderstand it. The point was that most jobs aren't generating material goods or services that advance humanity. The general purpose behind most jobs out there is to make money, not to make the world a better place.
Posted by themaroon at August 17, 2005 9:59 AM
Comments
Posted by: OnlineRaider at August 17, 2005 11:33 AM
These comments are a riot.
"benefiting humanity"
A person selects a profession because it will satisfy him and because he will make money at it--not because they will benefit "humanity." Poker players are easy to pick on, but assuming they don't cheat, and report all of their income, they are no different than a mini-casino. Because Maroon is a "better" poker player than the majority of people he plays against, he has a positive expectation every time he plays poker--just like a casino has versus a craps player. Why don't we shut down all casinos then? Does Las Vegas economically benefit from the presence of the casinos or would it be better off if those casinos did not exist? Would it still be one of the fastest growing cities in the country?
"deprived the opportunity of consuming"
And you seriously making the argument that if the typical party poker player had no party poker to play--or no poker at all to play--that he would spend his discretionary income on something that benefits humanity?
Over the past month, I can't think of ONE THING that I spent my discretionary income on that benefited humanity. You know who I was thinking about when I spent my money--ME.
Maroon spends his money at the same type of restaurants that doctors do. He shops at the same types of stores, goes on the same types of vacation as upstanding citizens.
"the government would get a cut eventually"
Wow. How you cannot understand why this is so, so wrong is beyond me. This is a basic economic principle of the velocity of money--and of course taxation.
Let's say Maroon didn't exist, and Joe Gambler spent $50k on a car. He has created two taxable events, the sales tax on the car and corporate tax that the profits contribute toward his
Let's say Maroon existed, and instead of Joe Gambler buying the car, he lost $50k to Maroon and Matt bought a car. Now the government gets income tax on Maroon, AND the sales tax on the car purchase AND the corporate tax on the profits of the sale.
Posted by: Po'Boy at August 17, 2005 1:17 PM
While I agree with the general thrust of the above post, the government does not techincally get any extra money, since Joe Gambler can deduct his gamblign losses against his own income on his tax return. That's not true of most expenditures, but it is for gambling expenditures.
Posted by: Matt at August 17, 2005 2:59 PM
I think you can only deduct gambling losses up to the amount of your gambling winnings.
Posted by: Toby at August 17, 2005 4:09 PM
"since Joe Gambler can deduct his gamblign losses against his own income on his tax return."
ummm, no he can't.
PO and Matt, I made the same argument you were making and some economist came in talking about transferring assets without producing goods as "skipping a step" of elasticity or something along those lines.
I looked into it and found a bunch of information on the web about what he was referring to, and came up with 2 conclusions:
1) The people saying that poker players hurt the economy because money is transferred without goods being consumed and/or produced may be right.
2) I couldn't explain to you why because I couldn't understand high level economist speak.
There was just a lot of reliable looking published information about the whole "step" thing and I could at least gather that skipping a step was bad for the economy.
Posted by: andy at August 17, 2005 4:46 PM
It's my understanding that you can only claim gambling losses against winnings. If Joe Gambler is a net loser, then the government gets more. I'll stop commenting on comments.
Posted by: Po'Boy at August 17, 2005 4:50 PM
Here would be my best guess of explaining the theory:
It is hard to see when just using one instance, of Joe gambler giving $50k to matt, and then matt spending it. When looking at it like this, it is hard to see how this could be bad for the economy.
But if you look at things in an infinite scale, when comparing the two options it looks like this:
If Joe Gambler spends his 50k, a taxable transaction has taken place and a good is purchased, resulting in another good being produced. Joe Gambler has a job so he is one of the people who produces these goods. If this process happenned infinitely, Joe Gambler would result in producing alot of goods and owning lots of goods and or wealth.
If Joe Gambler loses his 50k to matt, a taxable transaction occurs but no good is produced. If wealth just transferred infinitely, and was taxed with no goods being produced, no goods would be produced period.
When looking at it like this, I am deducing that it is possible that simply the act of transferring money in a taxable transaction with no goods being produced could be bad for the economy.
Now I have put a whole hour of my life into researching and understanding this. I gamble for a living myself so I have no desire to prove that gambling is bad for the economy. I don't care if my poker is good or bad for the economy, because I am looking for my own self-interest.
I am not sure that it is in fact bad for the economy, but I know I once held the same position on the debate, but now I am open to the possibility that those that say it is bad for the economy could be correct. I am sure there is some hole in my infinite example given above, but I'm not going to spend great deals of time for me to discover the truth, simply because it doesn't really matter to me.
Matt bringing up the fact that entertainment is a good, and the person spending time playing poker is a good being produced, obviously he is right that it is a good, but furthermore it should be obvious that this is not a good that is productive for society. However, if entertainment is not a positive good for society, that leads me to ask if being an Actor or television executive is any more productive than a poker player. How many professions produce useful or beneficial goods for the economy?
I suppose we as people value having the money to purchase a movie stub, thus we consider this to be a positive good for society, whereas having the money for the entertainment of poker is not widely viewed as a positive good.
Now I'm just rambling. Fact of the matter is that if economic theory could be explained in simple analogies, then why do even top economists still debate on what's the best way to tax citizens. Steve Forbes suggests a flat tax, and I read Forbes all the time and he sure sounds like a smart guy to me. Every country in the world has different tax laws. Simple anologies cannot be used to really argue economics in my opinion, because it is not that simple.
But, to me, none of this matters. All I want is a case of miller light in the fridge, a football game to watch tonight, and to sleep till noon.
Posted by: andy at August 17, 2005 5:08 PM
"Without someone to win that money and cash it out it would flow around Party until the majority of it got raked and sent to India."
Or, raked and sent into the pocket of a guy named Anurag Dikshit.
Posted by: Matt K at August 17, 2005 8:02 PM
Although a good for humanity arguement wouldn't be affected by it being sent to Gibralter, only a good for the country arguement would be.
Posted by: andy at August 17, 2005 9:13 PM
Whats with all the talk about contributing to society? People are upset that you can make a living at playing poker and not have to go to a 9-5 job, but how are most jobs contributing to the greater good?
On another note, why be concerned about such a small portion of money when your average CEO out there pulls in millions of dollars a year, and makes consumers overpay for there goods. How many business's take advantage of consumers through price gouging, monopolistic practices, and the like? Go after them, and leave the guy playing poker alone!
Posted by: COOKERRR at August 19, 2005 9:38 AM
Andy's first paragraph basically sums up what I was getting towards. Poker causes a transfer of wealth; nothing is created. We can pass 5 bucks around all day and have 5 billion dollars change hands five dollars at a time, but at the end of the day we collectively only have five bucks. If instead of spending time passing money in circles we applied ourselves to "productive" persuits at the end of the day we would have a certain number of widgets produces, yards mowed, movies made whatever.
"I'm bringing it back to the U.S, which is effectively a net generation of wealth for my country"
Sort of if you frame the question right I guess. That is, only if you look at things from an individual nations perspective. From a world perspective you haven't done anything. Everything is still exactly the same. Nothing has been created.
Even, if you take the nation-centric view you assumes the money would all end up in Gibraltor. You taking money out of play doesnt necessarily mean less money is going offshore unless you taking that money results in someone not playing anymore.
"The point was that most jobs aren't generating material goods or services that advance humanity."
I believe most do. Maybe we differ on our definitions of advance humanity. I believe makign chairs advances humanity, making spreadsheets that allow widgets to be made. It all goes towards producing goods or services. That contributes to a net increase in wealth. It may not be curing cancer but is contributing where poker playing is not.
By the way thanks for the spellcheck. The last resort of a person on a losing end of an argument. Also thanks for blocking me from commenting.
Posted by: RonJer at August 19, 2005 11:20 AM
"I believe makign chairs advances humanity" LOL. That's probably why you can't play poker for a living, and why you seem so irrationally hellbent against someone who can. You continue advancing mankind by your chairmaking though!
Posted by: Dragonystic at August 22, 2005 8:55 AM