The Poker Chronicles

I call. Monkey chip leader could have had anything based on the way he played from four tables down to 3 handed. I/You/We play tournaments to win. Calling was the best way to put yourself in a position to win the tournament. Folding probably would have put John in second place, however not in first. I play for first, not second.

I think JJProdigy was the big monkey.

you might find this of interest:

http://www.pocketfives.com/68F7F5AC-0C20-4CB7-B4D6-2F6F3203E56F.aspx

The payout structure at this point is very similar to a SNG 53/27/20. In running the numbers and putting the Chip leader on a range of hands like 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+,Q6o+, J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s+ your call is actually almost -EV of $1000. With no fold equity and the short stack being as short (2 1/2 times around the table)as he is I think probably better to wait.

Yeah, I read the JJ thing last night.

While I think alot of people are up in arms for the sake of just getting riled up about something, I love my gossip and controversey and would love to see it get taken away from him. I've never done 2 entries in a tourney, but if I ever staked my grandma, I'm 100% positive that I'd do the exact same thing.

It's funny how you just blatantly call someone a donkey but don't know anything about it. The 'donkey' that won the tournament is actually one of the best MTT players online.

Just because you can't understand the moves he was making doesn't make them any less correct.

FWIW, I think the call with the AJ was horrendous.

But he does know something about it Jordan, he posted numerous donkish examples.

FWIW, I would have called with AJ in a heartbeat. It certainly must be a leak in my thinking as well that in actuality it's a close decision, because with that sharp of a payout structure I would have never figured it to be that close.

We thought he was a donkey because he made many plays during the coarse of the tourney that couldnt possibly be correct. (going all in under the gun for 30+ BB with people having him covered behind him repeatedly) He also won a huge pot with AJ by making the worst call ive seen in a while and hitting his 3 outer vs someone who obviously had him dominated (and no he wasnt getting even close to 2-1 on his money). If hes one of the best tourney players online then imagine how good he would be if he didnt do all those stupid things.

Im sure I made some bad plays during this tourney too, but anyone who thinks the AJ play was "horrendous" obviously has no clue.

John- congrats on the big win. Hope to see ya out in Vegas this year again, and save some of it for some Roshambass-kicking.

Since it turned out to be a coin flip (51-49 against) if you had known that he raised with 4's would you call? Basically you'd be taking a 50-50 shot to grab a 2-1 chip lead for 140 dimes (i'm pretty sure I know what a dime is, lol). Not that i'm an expert, but with the payout structure the way it was, i think it was the right play.

Bubba: "Since it turned out to be a coin flip (51-49 against) if you had known that he raised with 4's would you call?"

No. Matt thought he was a 60-40 fav. If he knows he's a dog it's a fold.

Best blog entry title ever.

That guy is most definitely not one of the best multi players on the net. He's maybe someone who plays a lot and talks on pocketfives often and is thought to be good by numerous readers there, but in reality he is not. I wish I had John's PT db, I could show you numerous terrible plays from the last couple hours. Trust me, there is nothing that guy understands that I don't.

If I knew I was a coin flip then no, EV calcs make it a fold, but that isn't really relevant. And I don't know how you did your calculations Nate, but I do know how Matros did his and I know that given the assumptions of our opponent's range his calculations were accurate. The payouts were 88/18/0 btw since we had third place locked up, maybe your error is due to that? Also we didn't give him that wide of a range, I don't think he shoves Q6o (and how the hell did you draw the line there?) with us behind him. Our range made us 60/40.

I'm pretty sure you've got him mixed up with someone else. I was watching him closely with 50 players left, and he never open pushed 30 BBs from UTG.

The person that did that was the fazz2 character and he was a donk.

I know which AJ call you were talking about and that was questionable. He raised from the CO and the button moved in having him covered. He was getting about 1.7 to 1 on the call and it was the third time the guy had moved in on him when he raised. The call was probably a bad call, but definitely not horrible.

And he IS one of the best on the net. Trust me, I know alot about this stuff and the results he has put up for the last year or so are just astounding.

As for saying there is nothing he understands that you don't, I'm just not so sure. I've seen you make several comments in the past that were way off base. And from what I could tell of your (giantdog's) play last night, your game is way too tight. I'm not trying to attack you here, I just don't think you have an open enough mind about these things and it could cause you problems in the future.

Hey Matt,
I am not familiar with Vegas, but I am an agent here in NC and are you familiar with GIS. You can use it to look at tax records which shows the price people paid for their homes. Let me know if you need any help.
Jon

Actually after reading his entry on pocketfives it seems he claims he didn't take over playing until near the end. It's possible many of the bad plays were made by his grandmother, though I think she is fictitious. You are right, fazz2 was making similar plays. And I'm curious what comments I made that you are referring to.

Also results in internet tournaments over a year are more or less meaningless really. All good results over a year shows is that they spent a lot of time playing something that is maybe half as profitable as playing cash games.

Matt: "The payouts were 88/18/0 btw since we had third place locked up, maybe your error is due to that?"

Not unless he did something extremely weird. The difference in EV between the call and fold scenario is the same -- all that matters are the differences between the payoffs not the absolute values so any number can be added or subtracted to them. Matros probably did that because multiplying by 0 is easier than multiplying by 52.

Matt: "Also we didn't give him that wide of a range, I don't think he shoves Q6o (and how the hell did you draw the line there?) with us behind him. Our range made us 60/40"

Nate's range makes you 62.5/37.5 so you gave him a wider range.

Q6o is a bad hand to push. 87s (which Nate doesn't give him) is much better in these situations than Q6o. Someone who doesn't know that and just learned it now is lucky -- it adds a percent or two to SNG ROI.

Paul, good comment I agree with your 87s being a much better hand to push with than Q6o, but after reading how often the leader pushed I put him on a pure maniac range. Matt, I also want to win and if $21k doesn't matter, it probably should. The prize break down at that point even though you were assured of at least third was still 53/27/20 and if you look at stack size and payout with an ICM calculator, it puts the preflop prize pool equity at, leader 43% you at 34% and the short stack at 23%. With the range of hands that I used before, you will have two outcomes win 62% and have prize pool equity of about 41% or lose 38% and have a pp equity of 20% GHN. So, your equity if you fold drops from 34.4% to 33.9%, if you call your equity drops to 33.5% or -.4%.

Matt, if as you said you put him on a much tighter range of hands the equity is much worse. 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs, you will only win 48% of the time and your call equity drops to 32.4% or -2%. I would love to hear from others if I am incorrectly calculating this and am remiss at not congratulating you and John on a great finish.

Nate

Are you just using default SNG payout structure in your calculator? I used one and entered the exact payouts (140, 70, 51.8) and again it said to call.

And again where do you get your range from? A3o+? Who goes with that but not A2o? I gave him 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A2o+,K2o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o for a range since he doesn't expect us to call and the bb has only 2.5 more. You probably could add a little more junk to that range too. The EV calc makes that a call given the 140/70/51.8 structure. It's just over +1.3%.

>>Matt, I also want to win and if $21k doesn't matter, it probably should.

It not mattering (and it's 18.2 anyway) is a HUGE advantage, because while it means everyone else is sacrificing EV to reduce variance I'm the one they are sacrificing it to. And the reason it doesn't mean that much is because I win a lot in cash games :)

Nate,

It looks to me if we win the hand we have about 42.7% prize pool equity (stacks will be 200k, 2.48 mil, 1.3 mil) which makes it a call. Also, I don't know where you got that 48% from against the range you listed, but AJs has 58% equity against that range.

Finally, let me speak for Matt in saying he didn't give this guy a tight range, he just didn't give him Q6o. Matt estimated his equity against the range at 60% using PokerStove. It looks as though 60% equity makes it a call, but close, and any higher amount of equity makes the call easier.

I think this is a very tough fold. But, necessary. You wrote that earlier, they had been folding to your BB. SO, I assume he wasn't just open pushing every hand. For me, this factor is critically important to the decision making process.

In the hand in question, with your stack size (now a damaging one, if called), you can tighten his range with his push into your BB. Further, he wants the other player out of the game and wants to get HU. So typically, IMO, with that open push, you are very often facing a weak to med PP.

If you fold, you maintain a position of contention and the 3rd player is on life support and facing imminent elimination. Once the short stack goes, very likely in the next few hands, you move up to 2nd place with a stack that retains FE against a player you consider yourself superior.

By folding you are dramatically increasing the chances that you win 2nd place money while remaining in the game to be able to contend for first.