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February 14, 2006
More Thoughts
One comment I got from a number of people who had watched the final table last night was that John had played too tight. It's a reasonable sentiment to be sure, if I were watching the table as an observer I would have thought that as well. And while he did fold a couple hands I wouldn't have, one of which I thought was a pretty big mistake (and he thinks so too upon review), it really wasn't that we were being overly selective. John was shoving with such luminous hands as K7 and T9, and had he ever picked up a single ace the chips would have gone in. But most of the hands he got were 83o type stuff and with the other players not pressuring him and fighting amongst each other (which I think was due to a combination of coincidence and fear inspired by John's aggressive play leading up to the top table) there was no need to go all-in with junk. They gave him time to wait for at least a mediocre hand and when he found one (T9) he went in and doubled.
I also got a lot of comments from people who were unknowingly advocating folding the last hand and sacrificing some EV in order to reduce fluctuations. That really isn't what I'm about. 18k is a lot to some people, it's not to me or John. And even if it was we still wouldn't do it. It's a natural tendency of course, hardwired into the human brain for millennia, and it's a weakness at the poker table.
I got a few comments with actual good reasons for folding, the best being that the EV calculations don't take into account superior play. While that is true I think that the blind structure and opponents' aggressiveness really take away much of the edge. If the stacks were deep and John got to play ABlackCar heads up for a while then I would agree. I'd give anything to have half of his action in a heads up no-limit ring game with that guy. But if he folds the AJ he has something like 14 big blinds left with blinds not far from increasing. Still room for a little play but not much, meaning that if it does tip the EV scale in favor of a fold it's only slightly.
Also a lot of people act as if the guy with 3.5 big blinds is done for. That's far from the case, he probably has a nearly 50% shot of calling that hand and getting right back in it. It's actually quite possible for us to fold the AJ and still get third, though it's also possible to call it, win, and get third.
Honestly I did learn something from the EV calcs, which was that I was wrong in thinking it was a clear-cut call. I thought the difference in EV would have been significant, it really wasn't, the two were nearly identical. On the off chance I'm ever in a similar situation but with different payout structures I'll remember that.
Most importantly I discovered the secret to Texas Hold'em, and it's playing Billie Jean over and over again on iTunes. I know it sounds absurd, but we scientifically proved it to be true. At first it was in a loop with maybe 10 other songs and sure enough every time John won a big pot it was the song playing. At numerous times John stopped playing it in favor of other, less ridiculous music, and every time his stack slipped. One more than one occasion I told him he should put it on because we needed some luck, and every time he managed to at least double before it ended, sometimes even quadrupling. One time he hit play and then the very next hand caught a 2 outer on the turn to bust some poor fellow's aces with pocket tens. Coincidence? I think not.
Does that god-awful song have some sort of magic power? If so is it just for John, or should every poker player listeni to it in an infinite loop on their mp3 player? I don't know the answer to these questions, but I assure you I'll find out.
Posted by themaroon at February 14, 2006 1:54 AM
Comments
Internet celebrities have large egos. I'm sure now that he's won 140k you can fairly easily convince him to run some heads up SnG's.
Posted by: andy at February 14, 2006 3:45 AM
i'm pretty sure billie jean is not a god awful song. that album didn't sell tens of millions of copies based on his moonwalking skills alone.
Posted by: eric at February 14, 2006 5:43 AM
Don't confuse popularity with quality. The two are unrelated, and in some cases mutually exclusive.
Posted by: Matt at February 14, 2006 6:22 AM
I was wondering if you would address Party adding short tables for the higher limit games and if you think it is a good idea or not.
Posted by: dave at February 14, 2006 12:25 PM
Adding short tables is the greatest thing that's ever happenned. Now all of the sudden you'll have hundreds of people without much short experience playing 30/60. It truly takes thousands of hours for most people to get comfortable playing shorthanded, there is no easy learning curve, except for I imagine a bright few.
For me personally, shorthanded 10/20 was my most profitable game. I never learned full ring, dabble in tourneys and NL, but nothing out there is as profitable for me than the 10/20. So I kinda felt trapped as if there was no where else to go. Well, now there is.
Posted by: andy at February 14, 2006 2:12 PM
I'm just curious if you guys would say someone like JohnnyBax or Gigabet are just overbown internet celebrities who can't compete against good poker players. Both of them have respect for JJprodigy, although maybe not so much with this whole two account controversy.
Posted by: Ben at February 14, 2006 4:26 PM
I hope you emailed PartPoker about the JJProdigy cheating incident. You of all people should have the highest interest in seeing this matter addressed by PartyPoker. After all he did knock you out when he should never have been there in the first place.
Congrats on your winnings and you played a great game,
James
Posted by: James at February 14, 2006 4:38 PM
"18k is a lot to some people, it's not to me or John"
18K is 225 BB at 40/80. That's got to represent many hours of play, even at a relatively high hourly earn for that level.
Posted by: Brian at February 15, 2006 1:17 PM
Better question: Why was "Billie Jean" ON his I-tunes list to begin with?
Posted by: Oriole33 at March 27, 2006 11:46 AM